Turkey would back attack on Iraq, reluctantly

“In view of our strategic partnership with the United States and the tremendous assistance we have received, we don’t have a choice — politically or morally,”

August 15, 2002
ANALYSIS – Turkey would back attack on Iraq, reluctantly

Fearing an attack on Iraq would harm its crisis-hit economy and threaten the security of its frontiers, Turkey has urged Washington not to start a war.
“In view of our strategic partnership with the United States and the tremendous assistance we have received, we don’t have a choice — politically or morally,” said Ilter Turkmen

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Ayla Jean Yackley

Whatever the makeup of Turkey’s government after November elections, the NATO ally is expected to give its support to a U.S. military strike on neighbouring Iraq, albeit with serious misgivings.

Fearing an attack on Iraq would harm its crisis-hit economy and threaten the security of its frontiers, Turkey has urged Washington not to start a war.

Public sentiment in Muslim Turkey is vehemently against an attack, and politicians could hardly campaign on a pledge to back U.S. President George Bush’s apparent commitment to toppling Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

But the importance Turkey — one of the IMF’s biggest debtors — attaches to its relationship with the United States outweighs these worries, analysts said.

“In view of our strategic partnership with the United States and the tremendous assistance we have received, we don’t have a choice — politically or morally,” said Ilter Turkmen, a former foreign minister turned newspaper columnist.

“This operation will raise many risks, no doubt. But we in Turkey, who are in a position to give substantial support…have to go along with the consequences,” Turkmen said.

Turkey could be an important frontline ally in any action against Iraq, providing both logistical and military assistance. U.S. warplanes already use Turkish airbases to patrol a “no-fly” zone over northern Iraq established after the 1991 Gulf War.

“The Turks have an interest in using their prospective involvement to their advantage,” one Western diplomat said. “If Turkey wants to have a say in the developments after Saddam, it has to be engaged in the process. They cannot afford to say no.”

Bad timing for election

Turkey is set to go to the polls on November 3 after infighting forced the ruling coalition to call early elections.

“What kind of government Turkey will have at the time (of an operation) is the $64,000 question,” Turkmen said. “Regardless of who comes to power, whether it’s the nationalists or the Islamists, they cannot operate without asking the view of the army. And the military… will be ready to give the U.S. support.”

The Justice and Development Party (AKP), a moderate Islamist movement, leads in opinion polls, but is viewed with suspicion by Turkey’s powerful secular-minded military, which wields considerable influence over civilian politics and ousted one of AKP’s Islamist predecessors in 1997.

If AKP sweeps the polls, it could have difficulty finding a partner with which to form a new government. This raises questions over who U.S. officials should talk to in Ankara as they prepare for a possible offensive.

“That uncertainty would cause problems. America will still implement its policies, but reaching the target may be tougher,” said Huseyin Bagci, professor of international relations at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

Political uncertainty at home could also weaken Turkey’s ability to protect its own interests.

An operation across the border would surely frighten away tourists who provide a key source of revenue as Turkey struggles to emerge from its worst recession since 1945.

A hike in oil prices would also hit Turkey hard, its economy struggling with inflation that hit 41.3 percent in July.

Kurdish question

The military is especially worried strife next door could stir unrest in Turkey’s troubled southeast, scene of 17 years of fighting between Turkish troops and Kurdish separatists that claimed more than 30,000 lives.

Turkey has sought guarantees a Kurdish state will not be formed in northern Iraq, where Iraqi Kurds have administered a breakaway enclave since the end of the Gulf War. The Turks fear the creation of a new homeland would provoke its own restive Kurdish population, the largest in the Middle East.

Some analysts said Turkey’s military, the second-largest in NATO, could contribute land forces to support a large-scale U.S. campaign.

The army regularly pursues separatists of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) into northern Iraq and reportedly controls an airbase there after driving most of terrorists out of Turkey.

“If there’s a big operation…with the support of (Iraqi) Kurds, then Turkey cannot stay idle and most probably it may enter Iraq,” said Mehmet Ali Kislali, a military analyst.

Officials have signalled they could back an offensive in exchange for the easing of more than $4 billion Turkey owes the United States for weapons purchases.

A change of regime in Baghdad would also open up the Iraqi economy to Turkish trade. Since backing the United States in the Gulf War and observing the subsequent trade sanctions, Turkey says it has lost more than $30 billion in trade with Iraq.

“Turkey realises if it co-operates, it has much to lose, but it also stands to gain a great deal,” said Bagci. “Turkey is a wagon attached to the United States’ locomotive. Wherever the locomotive goes, the wagon always follows.”

Ankara – Reuters

http://www.antiwar.com/rep/turkish2.html

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http://www.turkishdailynews.com/FrTDN/latest/for2.htm#f35